Goldman Sachs raises its music forecast to $198.1bn by 2035, with live music and price rises leading

Goldman Sachs has published the 2026 edition of Music in the Air, its annual forecast for the global music business, and the headline number has gone up. The bank now expects total music revenue to reach $198.1bn by 2035, nearly double the 2025 level. Trade coverage describes it as the first upward revision to the long term forecast since 2022, and a modest one, slightly above last year's projection.

The drivers will be familiar to anyone working in electronic music. Live is singled out as one of the strongest growth stories in media, with steady spending on concerts and festivals. On the recorded side, the report expects paid streaming subscribers to grow to around 1.5 billion over the next decade, supported by regular price rises and new tiers. Direct to consumer superfan products, from premium memberships to physical and exclusive releases, are named as another source of growth.

AI gets its own chapter. Goldman sees new income from AI licensing, creation tools and other ways to monetise music, but it also flags a longer term risk for labels: as generative AI makes music cheaper to create, competition for listening time and royalty pools increases. Coverage notes that the report reads more favourably for distributors and live businesses than for traditional record labels.

For artists, the message is that the money is moving towards the room and the relationship. If live and superfan spending are where growth sits, then a strong show, a ticket price that matches demand and a direct line to your core audience are worth more than another single pushed into a crowded release week. Dance acts already earn most of their income from DJ fees and shows, so this forecast backs a strategy many are running already.

For managers and labels, the AI warning is the part to act on. More music competing for the same streams means catalogue value depends on rights being clean, registered and licensable, including for AI training deals where they exist. Check that your artist's releases carry accurate metadata and that contracts say clearly who can approve AI licensing.

For bookers and promoters, a forecast like this is a reminder that demand is strong but not unlimited. Price rises at the streaming end and in ticketing both land on the same fan's wallet, so value for money still decides who sells out.